The Rundown

Here’s the sitchy:

Of the Cubs, Houston, LA, Phlly and Florida, two are playing in October. Here are the records of those teams, ranked by fewest losses.

FLA 85 70
PHI 85 71
Hou 84 71
Chi 84 72
LA 82 72

Florida hosts Philly on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday after wrapping up with Atlanta today. That means, one of those teams has to win at least 2 games. Assume a Florida win today (worst case). Florida then finishes with three versus the Mets. I see a Florida sweep of the Mets as Lieter is scheduled to pitch the season finale and Glavine and Trachsel will not pitch. Oh, and the Mets have lost 16 of 17. That moves the Fish to 89-70. The Fish need to be swept by the Phils, in Miami, for the Cubs to have the Wild Card outright, or lose two to force a playoff.

Philly has three in Miami and then closes by hosting Atlanta for three. It’s possible that Atlanta will still be fighting for home field advantage. Again the Cubs need help for the Wild Card. Assuming the Phils sweep the Fish, the Bravos would need to take 1 for a Wild Card tie and 2 for the Cubs to take the Wild Card outright.

Oh, yeah. That all assumes the Cubs go 6-0.

LA has 8 games in 7 days. I’m counting them out for now.

Houston looks at their next 3 games throwing:
Villone (6-5) vs. Williams (7-4)
Miller (14-12) Schmidt (16-5)
Oswalt (9-5) Ponson (17-11)

The best one could hope for is 1 loss here. And that might be today. That leaves 4 against Milwaukee. They’d go Redding, Robertson, Miller, Oswalt (on 3 days rest). The best case here is also 1 loss.

Once again, 6-0 for the Cubs wins the division.

My guess is a 5-1 week gets the Cubs playing a 1 game playoff while the Bears are desecrating the lakefront in their new abomination. 6-0 gets them in as either Wild Card or NL-C Champs. 4-2 and it’s Wait ‘Til Next Year.