Sunday, June 13, 2004

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines


KC has announced that the bidding may commence for Carlos Beltran. Will Carroll writes up his analysis and concludes that, without a big offensive upgrade, such as Beltran, the season will not end with an extension of play. This sheet agrees.

Carroll further puts together a package of prospects that will get the deal done.

A) Corey Patterson
B) David Kelton or Jason DuBois
C) one of Sisco, Blassko, or Nolasco
D) Sergio Mitre

Again, this sheet agrees that such an offer is met with a handshake.

All that said, such offer is never made unless Beltran agrees to an extension prior to the trade. That's a steep price for 3 months of work. Without an extension, I see the offer is a max of:

A) Corey Patterson
B) One of David Kelton, Jason DuBois, Sisco, Blassko, Nolasco, or Sergio Mitre

Now, this sheet would make said deal, regardless of the extension status. Other than Korey, I don't see any of the other names cracking the Cubs lineup in the next 3 years. As such, the price is not steep, regardless.

The key is, I don't think Hendry has the stones to make that big of a move. This is a guy that's passed on Rolen and Lowell, and Lowell was passed upon because of the price.

Show us your willingness to win, Jimmy. Get the guy.

:::::UPDATE:::::
ESPN has an article ranking the teams likely to acquire Beltran. The author ranks the Cubs as the 6th most likely. The better part of the article is the blind quote from a baseball GM:

"...you know it's strictly a rental situation. With another player, maybe, you could make him feel really comfortable after you get him, give him a feel for your clubhouse and your city, and then you can negotiate a long-term extension before he hits the market. If you went after a player like that, you might be willing to give up an extra prospect, or give up one of your best young guys. ... But there's no hope with [Beltran]. Boras is not going to sign, and that's going to affect what you're willing to give up."


It's gonna be a small offer, at best.

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