Thursday, July 01, 2004

Randomness


Off to see my fourth game of the year today. Two at Comiskey and now two at Wrigley. Prior will have pitched in three of them. What I'm really juiced about is sitting 4 rows off the field.

When I called Korey a stupid player, I was being too kind. This is a stupid TEAM. Other than Todd Hollandsworth, is there a player on the team that knows how to run the bases? How to hit a cutoff man? Anything?

Carlos Beltran's homer. Some people get angry at LaTroy Hawkins for throwing the pitch. I get angry at Jim Hendry for not getting Beltran into a Cub jersey.

While the chatter has been to get Eddie Guardado, John Smoltz, Joe Table, or some other bullpen help, the real need is for offense. Let's look at some numbers.

The Cubs are averaging 4.8 runs per game. But averages are deceiving. Score 10 runs in game 1, score 2 runs in game 2 and get shut out in game three and your team averages 4 runs per game. They probably also lost two of three.

Median RPG is a better measure. While the Cubs average is 4.8 RPG, the median runs they score in a game is 4. And over 40% of the time they score 3 runs or fewer. Check this chart on the distribution of runs scored per game and the number of games in which they've scored various totals:



This isn't enough. Look at the Cards. They average 5.2 RPG, less than half a run better than the Cubs. But their median RPG is 5 and they score 3 or fewer runs only 33% of the time.

Now, who has the better pitching?

Kick up the offense. A small boost would propel this team. It's obvious.

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