Wednesday, September 22, 2004
Corey Patterson is having a good season at the plate, right? Before tonight’s Golden Sombrero, Corey was hitting .279 with 23 dingers (.800 OPS) and 32 steals. That’s good, right? It’s strange to see that because there’s been times that he’s been brutal at the plate and times that he’s been superb. He's obviously a streaky player. Well, I took some time to break down how streaky he is. Stocks are analyzed on a trailing period of days basis. This allows an investor to see how volatile a stick is. Let's apply that analysis to offensive stats. I used pools of 100 and 200 trailing plate appearences to try to find some volatility.
Looking at Corey’s stats in just such pools, it’s becomes clear just how streaky he is.
Over 200 plate appearances, his numbers are fairly stable. His batting average fluctuates between .239 and .306, OBP from .305 to .368 and his slugging from .361 to .533.
At 100 plate appearances, his numbers swing drastically. His batting average fluctuates between .210 and .376, OBP from .255 to .422 and his slugging from .310 to .670. But the key here is to look at the swings. And the number of swings. Corey has tanked three times and peaked twice. That means, despite his good overall stats, he’s more often an offensive liability than a force.
Now, let’s compare Corey to a player also supposedly streaky: Sloth’s favorite roto first baseman, Derrek Lee.
Now Derrek has similar gaps in his 100 PA trend. His batting average fluctuates between .216 and .430, OBP from .271 to .490 and his slugging from .371 to .806. Larger gaps. But look at the line. Much smoother. No super hot streaks and brutally bad streaks. He's more consistent.
That's what kills about Corey. When he’s on, he’s really on. When he’s off, he’s Arctic. And he swings so often as to make him unreliable.
I’ll never trust Corey until he gets consistent. And I don’t think he’ll ever get there.
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