Tuesday, September 21, 2004

We Won't Get Fooled Again

Don't let anyone fool you. The Cubs lost ground yesterday. A full game. They are now tied in the loss column with the Giants and are only 1 up on the Michael Barrett inspired Astros. As such, the Cubs no longer control their own destiny. While they still maintain an advantage in schedule, all one need do is look at 2003 when the Astros just needed two wins against the Brewers.

How did that work out?

What the Cubs have going for them is the Pirates and the Mets while Houston and San Francisco play each other. While the first glance says that the best outcome for the Cubs is a series split with Houston winning two games, I go the other way. Houston plays no one after they finish with the Giants (Brewers, clinched-Cards, Rockies). They need to be buried. Now.

But that gives the Giants a three game winning streak, right? That hurts the Cubs’ Wild Card chances, right? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

The Giants are three games behind the Dodgers right now, and the Dodgers head to San Diego for three. The Pads have Eaton, Peavy and Wells queued up. Then the Dodgers go to San Fran for some head-2-head. Now, how cool would it be for the Dodgers to drop 2 to San Diego, the Giants sweep Houston, and then San Fran dumps the Dodgers? San Fran buries Houston for the Cubs, then takes the division from the Dodgers. That's just too dreamy to think about.

The Cubs would only need to win about 4 of 6 against New York and Pittsburgh. That's some room for error that they currently don't have.

And I still think the Cubs need that margin.

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