Wednesday, April 27, 2005

The Right Stats

Through 20 games, the Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs per game and are 10-10. Through 18 games, the Cardinals are averaging 4.9 runs per game, yet were 13-5. As we've told you before, the runs per game numbers are meaningless as they are skewed by high run totals. For example, the Cubs have scored over 10 runs twice and got shut out twice. Yet their average runs scored in those four games is 6.5.

The better measure is median runs scored. In that respect, the Cubs median is 4 runs while the Cardinals is 5. In other words, although the Cubs are averaging more runs per game they've scored 4 or fewer 50% of the time. The Cardinals have scored 5 or more runs half the time.

Where are the Cubs if they'd been more consistent their scoring output? How many one run games have they lost?

It's not the average, it's the consistency.

Right now, the Cubs have the consistency of wet cement.

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