Interesting Record

What are we to make of last week's single-game ticket sales at Wrigley Field? There are all sorts of data from last week’s sale and very little analysis of what it all means. The date include:

- The Cubs set a record for most tickets sold in a single day
- Fewer people stood in line outside Wrigley for the purchase lottery wristbands (anecdotally)
- Far fewer games are sold out now than there were at this time last year

The reason what this means is important for all of us is because the financial success of the team may have a direct bearing on what this team does in the middle of the year for player acquisitions, player divestments, and, ultimately, the possible sale of the team by the Tribune.

The first thing we have to consider is that there are about 1,500 additional bleacher seats available for each game. This should clearly lead to fewer sellouts simply because the total supply of seats is greater.

But, given what demand has been in the past for tickets, shouldn’t that level of demand been sufficient to absorb a 4% increase in available seats? Isn't it beyond possible to even probable that demand is now lower than it was in the past? And how does that make sense in light of the record single day ticket sales?

Well, our friend Jimmer over at the Cubbie / Eskimo.com listserve had an interesting angle. He suggested that the Cubs improved and increased their capacity to service ticket sales this year in order to set that single day record. Such increased capacity would also account for the fewer people in line for wristbands (as of yet, there is no report of how many wristbands were issued this year compared to previous years).

But why would the Cubs really want to set that single day record? Well, there are two good and obvious reasons, both of which have to do with public relations.

First would be the fact that a ticket sale record would likely quash any story of diminished demand. Given that the Cubs would have an advance indication of the demand level given season ticket renewal / attrition rates, they would have the lead time to prepare the necessary means to set that ticket sale record.

The second reason the Cubs would want a story about record ticket sales is a little over 8 miles south of Wrigley Field. That would be the White Sox. Don't underestimate the Tribune's desire to spin as often as possible and even in the tiniest way that the Cub product hasn't been tarnished by the White Sox.

If demand is really down, and the Cubs are spinning like crazy to hide this fact, the probability of a team sale increases all the more. The last thing the Tribune needs is ANOTHER declining strategic business unit.

There were a lot of empty seats last September. Keep your eyes on the number of fans dressed as green seats this year if the team gets off to a slow start.