Knighted

Over at the Cub Reporter, it's roundtable time again. Here are my responses to their queries:

1. Rate the Cubs off-season acquisitions and maneuvers. Did Jim Hendry sufficiently address the team’s needs or was he left in the cold holding a bag of donuts? Mmmm, donuts...

The offseason can only be described as disappointing. With a ton of dollars clearing from the end of Sammy Sosa’s contract and Jeromy Burnitz’s contract, with close to $3 million in new revenue from expanded bleachers, with Dusty Baker and Jim Hendry’s contract coming to an end, and with success on the other side of town, you figured the stars were aligned for a big splash. Instead, a small “kerplunk” was heard. When your best offseason acquisition is a pending-free agent centerfielder coming off his worst season in 4 years, you haven’t had a good offseason.

Hendry seems to have tried the strategy that Larry Himes tried after Greg Maddux left: Spread the dollars around between several players. The problem with that strategy is that the team gets a few decent players but no difference makers. Jacque Jones and Juan Pierre instead of a Bobby Abreu. Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry instead of Billy Wagner.

And no Rafael Furcal or Kevin Millwood, players who were clearly need players.

Very, very frustrating.

2. What is the one off-season move you wish the Cubs made? (Be specific)

Clearly, the offseason move I wanted the Cubs to make was to get Juan Pierre. Unfortunately, I wanted that move to be made in the winter of 2004. While getting Pierre is still an excellent move, sadly, the Cubs needed more moves that weren’t made to push them over the top. Those moves would have included getting Billy Wagner (and making Ryan Dempster the primary setup man) and adding Kevin Millwood. At the time, it appeared that Millwood was going to be a luxury. Now, it seems pretty clear that the Cubs knew they were going to be two men short in the rotation (Wood and Prior). Not getting Millwood, or a similar starter, sure seems dumb now knowing the injury status of the rotation. Howry and Eyre seem to be decent acquisitions, but I’d have rather seen the Cubs pass on those two decent pitchers and get the excellence of a Wagner.

3. What is the one off-season move you’re glad the Cubs didn’t make?

Alphonso Soriano for second base. The only guy who lets more get past him is Jocelyn Thibault.

4. Hendry and Baker, brothers in arms, men with expiring contracts. Do they get automatic extensions or will their futures be tied into this team’s successes or failures?

It’s clear that Andy MacPhail wants to give Hendry an extension and Hendry wants to extend Baker. There’s two issues here: 1) Do they deserve the extensions right now or later in the year; and 2) Why haven’t they gotten extensions already?

On the deserve mark, the answer is clearly no to right now. Baker should have been fired after the 2004 season when he allowed Steve Stone to distractions the team from actually focusing on the game. Baring a playoff appearance this year, Dusty needs to go.

Hendry’s been a decent GM, but has serious flaws. He allowed the team to go leadoff-less for three straight years and only got Kenny Lofton (and the associated playoff spot) by the shear good luck of Corey Patterson’s shredded knee. He failed to add to a weak bullpen for three straight years. He failed to add to the rotation this year.

Why should a man who leaves obvious, gapping holes in a team be allowed to keep his job without having to prove himself during the final year of his contract?

Both men should have to earn their contract extension through their 2006 performance.

Now, the “why haven’t they both already been extended” is a much more interesting question. As mentioned, clearly MacPhail wants to keep both Hendry and Baker as letting either go would signal that MacPhail is directionless. Therefore, there’s only one possible explanation. MacPhail is getting pressure from above not to extend the contracts.

Now, why would he be getting pressure? There are a few logical answers. One would be the decline in attendance and TV ratings last September, an indication of a fan base ready to end the party of unquestioning support (and ticket buying). The Tribune doesn’t need falling profits at another division.

Another, more hopeful reason, could be this: The Trib is preparing to sell the team. In such a case, they would not want any long-term management contracts in place as a new owner will want his own GM and that GM will want his own manager.

Watching how this plays out may be the most exciting part of the 2006 season.

5. Derrek Lee put up MVP-type numbers last season in what will either be his career year or career turn-around. Does he repeat those lofty totals or was last year the peak of an otherwise ordinary career?

The answer is likely in the middle. I do not think Derrek Lee will conclude his days in baseball known as an average player. But to expect him to put up MVP like numbers going forward is not reasonable. I expect he’ll revert to about .290 / 38 / 110. And, if Pierre gets on base at his historical .355 rate and Neifi doesn’t bat second, that 110 could go to 125.

6. Second base; what do you do? Or better yet, what should have been done?

Todd Walker should start at second given the options available. What SHOULD have been done is a free agent short stop should have been signed allowing Ronny Cedeno to play second. That short stop could have batted lead-off or in the two hole and probably lowered the cost of acquiring Juan Pierre.

Anyone know a short stop that fits that bill?

7. Who will be this year’s surprises, who will be this year’s disappointments?

Beyond seeing a rookie like Felix Pie come up to replace an injured Pierre or Jacque Jones, or replace an injured or traded Matt Murton, I can’t see a position player being a surprise. Perhaps expectations from Jones are so low that a .260 season out of him could be considered a surprise.

Jacque Jones leads the likely disappointment list followed closely by Bobby Howry who had every bit the career year last year that Derrek Lee had.

8. The Cubs come into the season relying on some young Cubs. How do you envision Murton and Cedeno’s seasons will go? Beyond those two, which lil’ Cubs do you expect to make the biggest impact on the team this year?

Ronny Cedeno gives you hope for a breakout. There’s no reason he can’t and plenty of reasons to think he can. He looked good in spurts last year and his minor league track record suggests he’s getting better as he ages. This is a marked difference in minor league performance from our dearly departed center fielder who gave you every indication on the way up that he had Fosbery written all over him.

Murton, I expect, will have a fine season with the bat. In the field, eh… He’s a prime candidate for a trade this year. Given the long contract gifted to Jacque Jones, the presence of Juan Pierre, and the coming of Felix Pie, there’s not room for all of them. Jones is untradeable. That means that, unless Pierre goes away via free agency, either Pie or Murton is trade bait. Murton’s older and the weaker fielder. He’s most likely to go.

9. You probably don’t need reminding, but the Cubs last won a World Series in 1908. What’s the biggest reason Cubs fans should be hopeful that this, at long last, is the year?

The curses are unwinding in reverse order: Red Sox, White Sox, now it’s the Cubs turn.

As to a real reason why fans should be hopeful? I can’t think of one. The only reason to have hope is illogical.

10. And the biggest reason they should think that once again, come October, it’ll be “wait ‘til next year”?

Lack of quality starting pitching. With Mark Prior long tossing a distance shorter than the mound-to-plate distance, Kerry Wood on the DL for the 10th time, and Wade Miller a reclamation project, counting on Glendon Rusch, Greg Maddux, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman and Jerome Williams is a level of faith that would make Jimmy Swaggart blush.

11. So, how many will the Cubs win this year? And how will it all end?

I’ve got them between 78 and 83 wins. How will it end? Badly.