Leading Indicators

The unthinkable is happening. People are losing interest in the Cubs. Beyond the empty seats in Wrigley, you can tell interest is waning by one source: Bloggers are quitting on the Cubs.

Christian, the Patriarch of Cubs bloggers (and one of the first to recognize this miserable site), announced the other day that he's taking a break from the Cubs:

So the team isn't contending, it isn't one player away from contending, it isn't rebuilding. I don't know where it is in the success cycle, and I don't think *it* knows where it is. As a fan, that's a really frustrating place for your team to be.

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It doesn't mean I'll stop paying attention, and it doesnÂ't mean I'll stop posting. But it does mean I'll being doing less of both of those things, and trying my best to care a little bit less about what's happening between the lines. I don't know how long it will last, but at least for the near future I have to unplug a little bit.

Andy Dolan over at Desipio is one of the best 'Net writers around. He's knowledgeable about the players around the league. He's a humorous read. He knows when to praise and when to bash. Now, it seems, he knows when to give up:

I make you this promise. If the Chicago Cubs actually give Dusty Baker a contract extension, I'm done. I'm gone. It's hard enough to find things to write about these jerkoffs as it is, can you imagine trying to do it if you knew you were going to have that fraud around for another three or four years? I'm serious, I'm already tired of writing about how terrible they are, what a completely overmatched simp he is and how torturous it is to watch the Cubs day in and day out.

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I can't just slog through crap filled loss after loss and feign an interest. It's almost impossible to stress just how bad these Cubs are. They are hardly even competitive in games any more. They're not embarrassing. They're soul crushing. I've watched lots of bad Cubs' teams. Maybe it's me. Maybe it's them. I just can't do it anymore.

It's not universal. There is the other end over at Bleed Tribbie Ink where winning is important. Massively important. However, that massive importance is just marginally above loving gallows humor over the historic events unfolding before them on beautiful summer days, even if those events are negative (aside: I guess that means seeing the Cubs set a record for most losses in a season would be lovely to watch).

Ok, that's a small sample size. So, how are we to know how many people are really losing interest in the Cubs? With the tickets already sold for 2006, attendance is not a valid measure and total in the house is no longer announced. We need different metrics. Several have been suggested. Here are a few:

TV ratings - Probably the best measure. What makes this measure even better is that in Chicago, we have a control to measure against. If Cub ratings go down and the Sox ratings don't, we can tell that people aren't leaving baseball to surf the web or play their PSP, they are just not watching the Cubs.

Radio ratings - Same as above. And, with WSCR and WGN both having 50,000 watt clear channel frequencies, the comparable holds nicely.

Total vending income - Levy Restaurants own the concessions at Wrigley. If fewer people are at the game, doesn't it hold that fewer hot dogs, beers and pizza slices will be sold? In fact, because announced attendance is not an indicator, this may be a better measure. We'll try to report on this as I have an inside source at Levy.

What other metrics can we determine that aren't annecdotal (like empty seats)? Make suggestions via comments or e-mail and I'll do my best to get a measurement.