When It Will Get Fixed

This blog continues to be popular elsewhere in the Cubs Blog Platoon (an Army can't have only 5 soldiers in it). Lately, there seems to be some disinformation about Cub fans, attendance, and when the team draws better and worse. Let's look at the last 25 years (Source material found here):

Year	Attendance	Attend/G	Attend Rank
2005	3,099,992	38,272	4th out of 16
2004	3,170,154	38,660	4th out of 16
2003	2,962,630	36,576	3rd out of 16
2002	2,693,096	33,248	7th out of 16
2001	2,779,465	34,314	8th out of 16
2000	2,789,511	34,438	9th out of 16
1999	2,813,854	34,739	6th out of 16
1998	2,623,194	31,990	6th out of 16
1997	2,190,308	27,041	6th out of 14
1996	2,219,110	27,396	5th out of 14
1995	1,918,265	26,643	5th out of 14
1994	1,845,208	31,275	8th out of 14
1993	2,653,763	32,363	7th out of 14
1992	2,126,720	26,256	5th out of 12
1991	2,314,250	27,883	4th out of 12
1990	2,243,791	27,701	5th out of 12
1989	2,491,942	30,765	4th out of 12
1988	2,089,034	25,476	5th out of 12
1987	2,035,130	25,439	6th out of 12
1986	1,859,102	23,239	5th out of 12
1985	2,161,534	26,686	5th out of 12
1984	2,107,655	26,346	2nd out of 12
1983	1,479,717	18,268	7th out of 12
1982	1,249,278	15,423	10th out of 12
1981	565,637	9,752	11th out of 12

What we see is that the Cubs drew NOTHING until they won in 1984. After 1984, as always happens, attendance went up in 1985. Then, the below .500 finish in 1985 hurt them in 1986. Andre Dawson helped in 1987 as did having 5 All-Stars in 1988.

Then 1990 is fascinating. Despite having a winner the year before AND hosting the All-Star Game, attendance dropped. My suspicion is that people knew the 1989 team was more lucky than good and didn't really buy into the team for 1990 (Note: I bought into the team in 1990 for season tickets, so at least *I* got suckered!)

Attendance then started to rise. Why? Simple. The Trib suits felt the crunch in 1990 of the lost revenue from a playoff team the year earlier. So what happened starting in 1991?

George Bell
Danny Jackson
Mike Morgan

I'm not suggesting these guys were any good, I'm suggesting that FAN APATHY AND THE DESIRE FOR THE PROFITS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSTSEASON GOT THE SUITS TO SPEND MONEY ON PAYROLL!

This is what's driven this team the last 15 years. A fear that the lack of marquee players will lead to a decline in attendance.

It's been said that in the 2002 season attendance "start(ed) to decline." That would be plausible if it were supported by more than a single data point. Between 1999 and 2001, attendance fell by 34,000. That's nothing. One game's worth or fans. That could be explained by weather, a rain out, whatever. A 1% one time drop is statistically meaningless.

How does this affect today? Simple. The team is afraid to trade the "name" players because it might hurt attendance. Demonstratably false. Yes, winning brings in a few more, but a Sammy Sosa did more to bring fans in from 1999 to 2002 than did wins and losses. Management unlearned the lessons of 1984 and 1989 because the fans did not demand a winner.

Look at the other side of town. Dan Burnstein said today on WSCR, the White Sox were dying. They needed to win to stay alive. They won. Now, they may pass up the Cubs in popularity in this town. How did they win? They kept changing managers and GMs because they needed to generate revenue to remain a viable franchise.

Until that happens for the Cubs, until they are threatened with viability, until WE stop spending money, we're in for a lot of losses.