Ignore Plan A Or Ignore Plan B?

A dichotomy of articles in the papers today. As usual, the best breakdown is in the Daily Herald. First, Barry Rozner chimes in with a "Blow the mother up!" article that echoes much of the logical blogosphere. He also, correctly, notes that this is a time to use the lemmings instead os simply abuse them:

The Cubs have enough valuable pieces to blow it up, start over and compete again in a fairly short period of time...

Yet, this is the key: You've got to make Cubs management believe you are willing to be patient as long as there’s a reward in sight.

See, they don’t believe it. They’ve never believed it. They might never believe it.

But you’ve got to make them believe it.

Tell them you can wait for a better product because you can’t watch this garbage anymore.

It is intolerable.

They think that 40,000 fans a game actually hampers their ability to turn over the dirt. They think it means they’ve got to put a freak show out there, so they sign Jacque Jones and Neifi Perez and hope to catch lightning in a bottle with Jerome Williams and Glendon Rusch.

They don’t know you’ll show up and cheer for kids trying hard - players such as Angel Pagan - playing the right way and because they hunger for major-league benefits.

They don’t believe you’ll support a promise of things to come.

This writer would pay to support such a plan. Hell, this writer would pay to support ANY plan. What this writer would kill to have a plan like the Marlins have had is a very long list. Everyone laughed at the Marlins in December. Ironically, the Marlins’ punchline remains “Chicago Cubs.”

Alas, we are told that there remains no such plan:

“To be successful next year, it’s not a blowup in order,” Hendry said Sunday before the Cubs’ 15-11 victory over the White Sox improved their record to 30-51.

“We need to obviously go back and look at how we might have done things that haven’t been successful and keep the parts we think are going to be successful. But if you look at it constructively, you still have a lot of people that are quality major-league players that are not old that can help you next year.”

As Dave Pinto mused, “not old” doesn’t necessarily mean “young.”

Actually, both Rozner and Hendry are correct. Either a blow up or a “tweak” strategy will work, if you implement it correctly.

A blow up is the more likely strategy to work as it gives you more options to pick from among developing talent and gives you more dollars to use to sign free agents. The trick here is that you need a GM capable of choosing and developing young talent. Given in 12 years, the Cubs have developed quality players from top ten picks Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, then Carlos Zambrano, then no one else, what faith does anyone have in Jim Hendry to do this successfully? Not this page.

The “tweak” strategy is much more difficult, but can actually turn the team around in one year. Here’s how it works. First, shed as much payroll as possible. Say good-bye to Kerry Wood, Greg Maddux and Juan Pierre. Unload Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre, Scott Williamson, Wade Miller, Bobby Howry, Jacque Jones. Trade Neifi Perez and Glendon Rusch for simply an assumption of their contracts. Getting rid of these guys frees up close to $50 million. And, if you can find a taker for Michael Barrett, you are up to $55 million.

Now, you have to use all this money, plus some more, and buy! buy! buy! all the free agents you can. The post-2006 list includes Barry Zito, Carlos Lee, Mark Buerhle and Brad Radke. Trade for Bobby Abreu and Miguel Tejada. Simply put, there's a lot of rebuilding that can be done with an open and loaded checkbook. Just look at Toronto.

Again, the execution of this plan comes down to faith in have in Jim Hendry to do this successfully. Not only does he have to bid properly, but scout properly as well. Can he do this?

Call me a doubter.

The best chance the Cubs have for 2007 is for the Chandler’s to break up the Trib. Stay tuned. This page is trying to get an angle on that right now.