Reasoning It Out

The events of the weekend showed, in more ways than one, just how much uncertainty there is running around 1060 West Addison and Tribune Tower. Andy MacPhail leaves, knowing he was going to leave for months but surprising (so they say) the other team execs and not setting an orderly transition. John McDonough, a 20+ year team officer, gets named "interim president." Denis FitzSimons non-deny denies that the Cubs are for sale. Dusty leaves and refuses to answer questions. And Jim Hendry gets left standing alone, trying to avoid becoming Mark Hatley (no, I don't mean Hatley-like as in dead).

What the hell is going on?

Well, I think it's all pretty simple, actually. I think it all has to do with the uncertainty over the Cubs actually being sold.

Let's step back and look at the July meeting Andy MacPhail had with Crane Kenney. Aside: Crane is not only general counsel of the Tribune Corporation, but he's also one of three people on the Cubs' board of directors (along with MacPhail and FitzSimons). What got me curious about that meeting wasn't that it took place, but rather WHEN it took place. Why review a baseball operation in July? Why not October, after a season ends? Why not January at the end of the Trib fiscal year? There had to be something unique to trigger a July review.

Looking back at what was going on in the Trib board room, the reason for the July review becomes obvious. The Trib was reviewing all its assets in advance of the September special board meeting. How do we know this? Back in May, the Trib outlined a plan to turn the company's stock around via debt, share repurchases, and small, targeted asset sales. On June 7th, the Chandler family balked at that plan and made a public statement advising "the Company that they do not share the opinions" of the Tribune on the May recapitalization plan.

That means, the Trib was going to need a new plan, a plan over which FitzSimons might not have full control. Wouldn't the first, logical step in designing such a plan would be a review of ALL Trib assets? Not just the ones FitzSimons wanted to unload in the May plan? Of course it was.

So, clearly MacPhail was with Kenney to review the Cubs top-down in advance of reporting to the board the status and value of one of the company's key assets in case it was decided to place the team up for sale. To finish the time line, it was at this meeting that Andy tendered his resignation. FitzSimons accepted it sometime in late July or mid-August, before the special board meeting.

Now, I'm not saying that this indicates the Cubs are definitively for sale. Rather, that the OPTION of selling the Cubs is being considered by the board along with all other Trib assets. Additionally, such a decision is now one in the hands of the Trib board of directors and out of the hands of FitzSimons.

Once you realize this, the reason for the rest of the moves in the Cubs front office become obvious. Since no one knows who is going to be owning the Cubs 6 months from now, why go hire all new management? Any new owner is going to want his own president, his own GM and his own manager. So, how does FitzSimons fire MacPhail but keep the team steady in case he is directed to sell the team? First, you promote from within. That leads to the elevation of McDonough. Second, you keep the GM for short term continuity's sake. You aren't going to get a GM of any caliber if he knows ownership is in flux. Ergo, Hendry stays for the time being.

Now, the last piece is the manager. There are only two types of managers that will take the current opening at the Cubs. One would be a guy so desperate to manage that he'd manage a 7-Eleven if he could be on a ball field. The other is a guy who would be so strong with the media and the fans reputation wise that he would survive the standard new ownership purge.

Who fits the latter description? How about the three names being bandied about: Lou Pinella, Joe Girardi and Bob Brenly.

It's pretty clear that the events of the weekend confirm that the Cubs are, indeed, one of the Trib assets available for sale. The question is: Where do the Cubs rank in terms of assets for sale? Are they at the top of the list or somewhat lower? We should all find out in the next 3 months when the Trib board meets again.

Uncertainty reigns. And with it, the hopes of winning baseball at Wrigley Field. May the Trib decide what to do quickly or 2008 will be soonest there could be any hope for Cub fans.