Monday, April 30, 2007


One of my colleagues over at Goatriders scribbled that the Cubs are doign well in everywhere but their record. Using a base Pythagorean estimation, Kurt suggests all will eventually be well:

So far, the Cubs have scored 110 runs this season, while allowing 88. There are no teams in the NL Central who have scored more or allowed fewer - in fact, every other team has allowed more runs than they've scored.

That's true. The problem with this statement is the small number of games this season played. Instead of looking at the gap between total runs scored and allowed, and instead of looking at average runs per game, one needs to look at the distribution of runs scored to see if the scoring pace is sustainable or is skewed.

Unfortunately, the answer is skewed.

In 24 games, the Cubs have scored 111 runs. This compares with 112 for the Brewers. But, the Cubs have scored 2 or fewer runs 7 times (29%) and 3 or fewer 10 times (42%). They've also been shut out once.

While the the Brewers have also scored 3 or fewer 10 times, they've only scored 2 or fewer 3 times with no shutouts. They score more runs more consistently. That's why the Brewers are in first and the Cubs are sub-.500.

Now, Kurt does have a point when he says that Alfonso Soriano and Matt Murton should get better and Felix Pie is a wild card. Unfortunately, only Soriano can truly be counted on. And, when he does start to click on offense, it's likely that Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will cool down.

The evidence is that this team is too poor offensively to compete. That can be fixed via trades. Will Jim Hendry have the permission to trade players away that won't be his responsibility this year to better the team now? Or will the Trib kybosh that in the name of preserving decisions for the new owner?

If the kybosh is on, 2008 has already begun.

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