Tuesday, June 16, 2009

$36,500,000 Worth of Outfield

The Cubs starting outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Milton Bradley has been pretty bad from the offensive side of the ledger. Here's how bad:

Player Games GS AB Runs Hits 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB HBP K SB CS SH SF GDP BA OBA SPct OPS
Alfonso Soriano 58 58 249 40 57 14 0 14 27 22 4 2 66 6 2 0 1 2 0.229 0.296 0.454 0.750
Kosuke Fukudome 53 47 177 30 47 12 1 5 22 37 1 2 42 4 4 1 2 3 0.266 0.394 0.429 0.823
Milton Bradley 47 38 141 20 32 5 1 5 16 20 1 3 29 0 0 0 0 6 0.227 0.335 0.383 0.718
Totals

567 90 136 31 2 24 65 79 6 7 137 10 6 1 3 11 0.240 0.340 0.429 0.769

For comparison, if you projected out Ryan Braun to 567 at bats, he'd have 34 homers and 115 RBI at the pace he's on right now. Carlos Lee would have 27 homers and 100 RBI.

But, it gets worse. If you factor out April, the numbers for these three are a batting average of .222; OBP of 309; SLG of .372; and an OPS of .680 with 11 homers, 34 RBI to go with 90 strikeouts and 44 walks.

Putrid.

It's hard to see how the Cubs plan to stay above .500 with performance like this over a full season. These are guys who Jim Hendry hired to be cornerstones, not dead weights. Now, you could "keep the faith" and say that they all have to get better. Soriano will do what he always does and get hot for 2 weeks and go from being an anchor on the teams offense to actually carrying it. Fukudome can't have tracked the same as he did last year and be good, then terrible (how could he have been good for 6 weeks?). And Bradley has to start having numbers somewhat similar to his career norms.

But it's also possible that no team will throw Soriano anything other than a slider away until he stops swinging at it, Fukudome will continue to imitate a "Sit N' Spin" and Bradley will wish that the disabled list came with frequent flyer miles.

There are no guarantees here. Anyone who says otherwise is selling something.

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