Thursday, April 22, 2010

Why Z

There's only one way that yesterday’s panic decision to move Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen makes any sense. With Ted Lilly set to return from the disabled list this weekend, one of the current starters must exit the rotation. The person to move to the bullpen is the player who will have the lowest Wins Above Replacement value to the team.

If the Cubs project that Carlos Zambrano will have a lower WAR in 2010 than everyone in the group of Ted Lilly, Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelany, Randy Wells and Ryan Dempster, then the move makes sense.

If not, Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry have allowed themselves to stop being professionals and are now simply raving nut bags.

Now, for the second question: Does anyone honestly believe that Zambrano will indeed have a lower WAR in 2010 compared to everyone else in that list?

If anyone believes that, then they also are raving nut bags. There is nothing in the career histories of Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelany that could make a rational person conclude that they will generate more wins for the team as starters than Carlos Zambrano would.

Given that, outside of Cubs' management, only irrational people seem to be supporting this move, that further supports the case.

On the other side, some people are using Zambrano's salary to be against this move. That argument doesn't hold water. Once a player is on the roster, the salary is irrelevant. The only issue is how to engage that human capital to generate the highest return. Dollars are a sunk cost.

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